Top Predicted Records In The League:
West:
1 Oklahoma City Thunder (62-20)
2 San Antonio Spurs (56-26) (tied)
2 Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) (tied)
East:
1 Detroit Pistons (53-29)
2 Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30) (tied)
2 Boston Celtics (52-30) (tied)
2 New York Knicks (52-30) (tied)
Predicted Standings and Lottery (1/16)
East
| 1st seed | DET | 53-29 |
| 2nd seed | NYK | 52-30 |
| 3rd seed | BOS | 52-30 |
| 4th seed | CLE | 52-30 |
| 5th seed | PHI | 51-31 |
| 6th seed | MIA | 47-35 |
| 7th seed | ATL | 47-35 |
| 8th seed | ORL | 45-37 |
| 9th seed | TOR | 40-42 |
| 10th seed | CHA | 37-45 |
| 11th seed | MIL | 36-46 |
| 12th seed | CHI | 34-48 |
| 13th seed | BKN | 26-56 |
| 14th seed | WAS | 26-56 |
| 15th seed | IND | 19-63 |
Projected Draft Lottery
| 1st Pick | IND | EAST |
| 2nd Pick | OKC (via LAC) | WEST |
| 3rd Pick | UTA | WEST |
| 4th Pick | BKN | EAST |
| 5th Pick | SAC | WEST |
| 6th Pick | WAS | EAST |
| 7th Pick | NOP | WEST |
| 8th Pick | CHI | EAST |
| 9th Pick | DAL | WEST |
| 10th Pick | MIL | EAST |
| 11th Pick | CHA | EAST |
| 12th Pick | MEM | WEST |
| 13th Pick | PHX | WEST |
| 14th pick | TOR | EAT |
West
| 1st seed | OKC | 62-20 |
| 2nd seed | SAS | 56-26 |
| 3rd seed | MIN | 56-26 |
| 4th seed | HOU | 51-31 |
| 5th seed | LAL | 47-35 |
| 6th seed | DEN | 47-35 |
| 7th seed | POR | 43-39 |
| 8th seed | GSW | 41-41 |
| 9th seed | MEM | 39-43 |
| 10th seed | PHX | 37-45 |
| 11th seed | DAL | 34-48 |
| 12th seed | NOP | 30-52 |
| 13th seed | SAC | 27-55 |
| 14th seed | LAC | 32-59 |
| 15th seed | UTA | 18-64 |
Methodology
This forecast of both standings and draft lottery was generated using a Monte Carlo season simulator designed to project final standings from the midpoint of the NBA season. Each simulation run iterates through the remaining schedule game by game. Games that have already been played are treated as fixed results, while unplayed games are simulated by randomly generating team scores within predefined scoring bounds. These bounds were calculated using various team statistics including but not limited to scoring range and variability. This creates realistic per-team performance windows rather than assuming every matchup is purely random or determined by a single rating.
A total of 8,400 full-season simulations were run to produce probability-weighted outcomes for every team’s final win total. Final projected records were determined using the median win result across all simulations (with losses implied by subtracting wins from 82), which reduces the influence of extreme outlier seasons. Lottery outcomes were simulated as a separate extension, using the projected lottery order as input and repeatedly running the NBA lottery odds table to generate pick distributions. Median pick positions were then used to estimate each team’s most likely draft outcome, forming the final projected lottery results.