Election Forecast
NOTE: This map only shows simulation wins and Gambit’s race ratings. Gambit Forecaster utilizes Monte Carlo methods to simulate 8,400 potential election outcomes. To look at margins and data, check out our most recent monthly report here.
Senate Trajectories
Governor Trajectories
Monthly Reports
Gambit Forecaster publishes monthly forecast reports, with stellar reporting and analysis on the major electoral developments throughout the 2026 electoral season.
Each update aims to highlight emerging trends, identify patterns, and potential dynamics throughout the electoral landscape.
View Important Election Days Here >
Methodology & Interpretation
What methodology is used to generate these results?
Gambit Forecaster’s Senate and Governor models are built in two sequential stages: a Bayesian poll aggregation pipeline that produces posterior distributions for polled states, and a Monte Carlo simulation engine that draws from those posteriors (or from structural bounds for low-polled states) to estimate the probability of each party reaching its governing threshold.