The past month’s primaries have offered the clearest confirmation yet of patterns Gambit Forecaster identified earlier this cycle. By extension, general election polling remains sparse at this stage; primary results and how they set up eventual general election races tell more of a productive analysis this month, and therefore are worth examining closely in the leadup to the breakdown of our general election forecast.

As of June 1st, 2026, the United States, in coordination with Israel, is still actively engaged in conflict with Iran that has grown in terms of regional participation. The war, by most metrics, is incredibly unpopular with the national voter base. According to a poll conducted by the Washington Post last month, 61% of Americans say that using military force against Iran was a mistake. 91% of Democrats consider it a mistake, while an incredible 79% of Republicans did too. Furthermore, 4 in 10 say it has been unsuccessful. The situation, in combination with the United Arab Emirates leaving OPEC, has caused to a massive increase in gas prices. The national average gas price as of writing is $4.39, a 38% increase from just one year ago. The ill-timed conflict in the Middle East, with what can only be considered acquiescence of financial issues faced by the voter base, puts the Second Trump administration into a rough predicament heading into the next election season.

Rating Changes: Nebraska (Solid R -> Likely R), Texas (Likely R -> Lean R)

Thirty-five seats are on the ballot, including all of Class II and two special elections in Florida and Ohio. Republicans are defending 22 of those seats, Democrats 13, with most states having solid ideological leanings. As outlined in previous reports, the 2026 Senate map is structurally favorable to Republicans, and Democrats would need a near-perfect night and at least four pickups to reclaim the majority. Hitting 50 seats would not be enough for Democrats, since the vice presidency currently rests with the GOP, leaving them in the minority unless they reach 51 outright.

As of last month’s simulations, Democrats only had a 10.43 percent chance of gaining the Senate. This month, Democrats have grown rather substantially in their chances at winning the majority the Senate, hovering around 20.67 percent. Republicans nonetheless are still favored to retain, at 79.33 percent chance of retaining. This shift in favor of Democrats is mainly to strong polling gains in key states alongside the possibility of Nebraska falling out of Republican hands. As opposed to previous months, Senate Dems have incredibly better odds in flipping the Senate. Given that Democrats only held about a 0.2 percent chance in January split in the January Report). The modal outcome of the Senate simulation is Republicans 52, Democrats 48. Democrats are still falling 3 seats behind what would be needed.

Nebraska offers one of the most interesting story-lines of the entire election cycle: incumbent US Senator Pete Ricketts will be faced in the general election by mechanic and populist Independent candidate Dan Osborn. Osborn had faced US Senator Deb Fischer in 2024, which he lost 46.52% to Fischer’s 53.19%. Now, in an interesting development, Osborn has polled better in this second shot at Ricketts. This performance, in tandem the current political climate, has propelled Osborn into an unusual position where it seems he has a true chance of winning. Osborn is not intending to caucus with Democrats if elected. In this months model forecast, Republicans are winning on an average of 2.01 points; however, in current iteration, Osborn wins 38.15% of the 8,400 simulations. This shift is represented with a new rating, Lean R. How this race unfolds will be incredibly interesting.

Alaska is once again among the most interesting races to follow in this cycle. Former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola (AK-AL) continues to poll well against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, placing her winning the RCV vote by an average of 3.89 points. This month’s forecast shows Democrats at a lopsided 8198-202 result in Alaska. April and May had highlighted Peltola’s personal popularity and unique appeal, but her results might also highlight Republican disorganization and the unpopularity of Sullivan. These results have not shifted all that much from May, and there will be no update to the rating as a result.

Michigan has continued to favor Republican in their own Senate race, this month showing a 2186-to-6214 simulation result. The state is likely the most consequential on the map for Democrats come election night. If Republicans win the state, the subsequent count would make any chance at majority for Democrats impossible. Alaska, North Carolina, and Texas should be monitored as potential Democratic pickup opportunities, while a great night in Michigan solidifies Republicans’ chances to retain the Senate.

Some states have seen major shifts in status on US Senate races, many are only marginal. Identifying the patterns formed over these past handful of months, and how they relate to national and material realities, are paramount to understanding where this election cycle is ultimately headed and who holds true momentum.

Rating Changes: Iowa (Solid R -> Lean D) , Michigan (Likely D -> Solid D), Nevada (Tossup -> Tilt D)

The 2026 gubernatorial map has also changed considerably from the past month (the Governor forecast so far has acted more dynamic in movement compared to its Senate counterpart). With methodological updates, June’s governor simulations are incredibly insightful regarding the momentum of each respective party in its respective unit of analysis. As of this months simulations, Democrats are expected to finish with 25 governor seats, while Republicans are expected to finish with 25.

Iowa is by far the most interesting and noticeable shift from the previous months reports. The race has shifted from Solid R back to Lean D, directly relating to polling updates featuring Democratic candidate Rob Sand. Sand is polling incredibly well for a Democrat in Iowa against major prospective Republicans. For example, an April poll conducted by Echelon Insights/NetChoice showing him +12 over his likely opponent, Rep. Randy Feenstra (IA-4). In this months simulation, Republicans win only 459 of the 8,400 total simulations. Sand wins 7941 of the simulations. Whether Feenstra is able to strengthen his coalition by November is yet to be seen, and makes this race incredibly important to follow for the rest of the season. The race is far from over, and Feenstra can still come back in polling after primaries (and might grow further after his recent Trump endorsement).

Georgia has continued its steep dive into favoring Democrats, as started this previous month. Furthermore, their average margin of winning is large at 4.66 points. In the aftermath of the primary election, Keisha Lance Bottoms has emerged as the nominee for the position by Democrats (Republicans will go to a runoff set for June 16th). Jon Ossoff is utilizing his statewide name recognition and popularity to bolster Bottoms, who is a rather weak candidate recruitment for a swing state. Bottoms formerly served as Mayor of Atlanta from 2018-2022, a tenure marred by bad press and major campaign finance scandals. Republicans can catch up on their losses there, although national issues in conjunction with great early polling has positioned forecasts on this race into Democrats hands.

Nevada continues to be among the most bipolar state within the entire forecast. The simulation now shows Democrats at 4,937 and Republicans at 3,463, which is a confirmation of last months shift. While last months margin had shown Nevada up 1.89 points in favor of Democrats, it is now 0.54 points. This paints a better understanding of how close the race is in current form, and that Democrats margin is nonetheless not all that comfortable. While Gambit Forecaster will change the rating to Tilt D (given the Monte Carlo results), we would not be surprised at that possibly changing next month or after. Nevada’s is a volatile state to say the least, holding one of the tightest margins in the 2024 Presidential elections.

Vermont should be quickly mentioned, as Gov. Phil Scott had waited until the day of deadline to file for re-election. With that fact in mind, we can close to guarantee that Scott will win against whoever runs against him in November. His statewide popularity paired with his growingly-arcane Rockefeller-style conservatism has placed him firmly in position to do so. The current margin of 11.98 points might be an understatement by election night. If he were not to run, a prospective Democrat would be ripe to retake the seat. California should also get some insight: As of writing, California’s gubernatorial election has not happened yet. It runs as a jungle primary, meaning that all candidates run in a singular primary, and the top two candidates of that pool advance to the next election. This election style creates the possibility of a Dem/Rep, Dem/Dem, or even Rep/Rep result. Therefore, on next update, I expect to have graphics and maps altered to account for and accurately display that split.

The broader picture from this month’s governor simulations is one of continued volatility and unexpected shifts. The modal outcome of Republicans 25, Democrats 25 offers a very compelling signal for Democrats in terms of electoral strength, even in spite of monetary trouble. Nonetheless, the map is unstable enough that it should not be mistaken for projections as though it is November. Instead, view it as whether the general election were held today.