We are now deep into the 2026 primary period, with the next string of primaries in Indiana and Ohio set to take place on May 5th. This month features the first major cohort of states (which includes some major states Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia) conducting their primaries.

Although this month’s report does not find as strong of shifts as the previous months’ reports in key races, there have been some incredibly interesting developments nonetheless. As of writing, the United States, in coordination with Israel, is still engaged in active war with Iran. This has pulled Republicans back into a position where they are currently more unpopular than Democrats, but even so, both are still incredibly unpopular nationally. While some Democratic officeholders and candidates have made their anti-war stance a policy priority, the establishment has been rather silent on questioning the rationality of the war. These sentiments seem to be translating into polling turnout more favorable to the Democratic Party (as shown by previous primary performances in this cycle), but it does not seem to be translating into actual trust in the party.

Rating Changes: Texas (Lean R -> Likely R)

Thirty-five seats are on the ballot, including all of Class II and two special elections in Florida and Ohio. Republicans are defending 22 of those seats, Democrats 13, with most states having solid ideological leanings. As outlined in previous reports, the 2026 Senate map is structurally favorable to Republicans, and Democrats would need a near-perfect night and at least four pickups to reclaim the majority. Hitting 50 seats would not be enough for Democrats, since the vice presidency currently rests with the GOP, leaving them in the minority unless they reach 51 outright.

As of last month’s simulations, Democrats only had a 9.6 percent chance of gaining the Senate. This month, Republicans are still favored at 89.57 percent chance of retaining the Senate, while Democrats now sit at 10.43 percent. Dems have only gained marginally from the previous month, but the stark difference between January and now should not be ignored (Republicans were favored by a 99.8-0.2 split in the January Report). In terms of the modal outcome of the Senate simulation, Democrats are still three behind: Republicans 52, Democrats 48.

Alaska is once again the most interesting race to follow in the Senate model. Former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola is polling incredibly well against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, and that strength is showing up in the simulation results more decisively than in any previous iteration. This month’s model gives Democrats a lopsided 8,220-to-180 result in Alaska, reflecting both Peltola’s personal popularity and unique appeal, alongside the state’s ranked-choice dynamics, which has consolidated non-Republican support pretty effectively. Despite this result, the Likely D rating does not change.

Texas has the only rating change in our Senate model this month, as the “Talarico-mentum” appears to have mellowed in the aftermath of the state’s primaries. Republicans have maintained clear advantages over Democrats in the Lone Star State throughout this cycle, as was broadly expected, and this month’s simulation reflects that, with Republicans winning the state 7,148 to 1,252. Whether Talarico’s message is able to bring out droves of inner-city voters at the scale needed remains an open question, and for now the model treats Texas as a reach rather than a genuine tossup.

North Carolina has continued to show up as a solid Democratic pickup in the model, even as additional polling data has come in. The state’s 8,400-to-0 simulation result this month reflects a race that, at least structurally, has moved firmly into the Democratic column. The model also projects Democrats to win in a general election by almost 10 points, but that margin will likely narrow as Republican candidate Michael Whatley builds name recognition and strengthens outreach to constituents. That kind of consistency across multiple iterations is genuinely interesting, and North Carolina now looks like one of the safer pickups on the Democratic side of the ledger. Michael Whatley, by extension, looks like a uniquely weak candidate in comparison to former Governor Roy Cooper.

Michigan, by contrast, stays favored in Republican hands, with this month’s simulation producing a 6,833-to-1,567 simulation result. The state remains one of the more consequential on the map for Democrats, given that a Republican win would shift the party represented in the seat, and makes a change in majority even more improbable. On top of that, Michigan has a 3-way slugfest in the Democratic primaries, in which none of them seem to be coming out looking like “the candidate.” Alaska, North Carolina, and Texas should be monitored as potential Democratic pickup opportunities, while a great night in Michigan solidifies Republicans’ chances to retain the Senate.

Rating Changes: Michigan (Likely D -> Lean D), Nevada (Likely R -> Tossup), New Hampshire (Likely R -> Solid R), Ohio (Tossup -> Lean R)

The 2026 gubernatorial map has continued to shift a solid amount, with four rating changes this month. With methodological updates, May’s governor simulations are incredibly insightful regarding the momentum of each respective party. As of this months simulations, Democrats are expected to finish with 24 governor seats, while Republicans are expected to finish with 26 (when utilizing modal outcomes of the simulation, of course).

Georgia has had the steepest shift into the favor of Democrats. This is mainly due to statewide polling returns that place the race solidly in Democratic hands, a dramatic reversal from last month’s 423-to-7,977 Republican result to this month’s 8,023-to-374 Democratic result. This is practically a reflection of the voting signal we have seen out of Georgia on the federal level this cycle, where performances for Ossoff has consistently outpaced expectations. This should be monitored though more thoroughly in the upcoming months once we get more polling, as Keisha Lance Bottoms does not seem to be the most viable candidate statewide.

Ohio is once again the most notable rating change in this month’s report, though this time the movement runs in the opposite direction from last month. The race has shifted from Tossup back to Lean R, with Republicans winning 5,527 simulations to Democrats’ 3,173. Amy Acton’s polling surge appears to have stabilized rather than accelerated, and Ramaswamy has shown resilience in more recent data despite his own controversies. The race is far from over, and Acton remains a credible candidate, but the window of Democratic optimism that defined last month’s report has narrowed considerably.

Michigan again moves in the opposite direction for Democrats, tightening from Likely D to Lean D. Democrats still win a commanding 6,557 simulations to Republicans’ 1,843, so this is not a race that signals too genuine of competitiveness. Rather, the change reflects a more disciplined read of the underlying data as additional polling comes in. Michigan remains a likely Democratic hold, but it warrants a slightly closer examination than its last month’s rating implied.

Nevada might be the most striking and unexpected shift in this entire report, dropping from Likely R to Tossup over the course of this month. The simulation now shows Democrats at 4,742 and Republicans at 3,658, a dramatic compression from where the race once stood. The margin for Democrats at around 1.89 points gives us a better understanding of the race, as it is now in the ballpark of being a genuine coin flip. Nevada’s structural volatility is well documented, and this result suggests the Democratic candidate is consolidating support faster than the Republican field is. This is a race that could easily move in either direction over the coming months, and it now belongs in the same conversation as Ohio as one of the genuinely competitive governor races on the map.

New Hampshire moves in the other direction entirely, hardening from Likely R to Solid R. The simulation result of 2-to-8,398 is about as decisive as it gets, and reflects a state where the Democratic candidate has failed to gain any meaningful traction. New Hampshire exits the competitive conversation for now.

The broader picture from this month’s governor simulations is one of mild consolidation at the margins, even as Nevada opens up as a new Democratic opportunity. The modal outcome of Republicans 26, Democrats 24 possibly signals a slight improvement from last month’s Democratic position, but the map still contains enough volatility that the final count could look meaningfully different by November.