Democrats have a 9.67% chance of taking the Senate, while Republicans have a 90.33% chance of retaining.
The Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 48 | Rep – 52
View blog post here >
Key Races: Alaska – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – New Hampshire – North Carolina – Ohio – Texas
Senate Trajectories (Since January 1st):
Rating Changes: Alaska (From Lean D -> Likely D), Maine (Lean D -> Likely D), New Hampshire (Likely D -> Solid D), North Carolina (Likely D -> Solid D), Texas (Likely R -> Lean R)
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
| Alabama | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Alaska | 7052 / 1348 | 83.95% | 16.05% | Likely D |
| Arkansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Colorado | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Delaware | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Florida | 11 / 8389 | 0.13% | 99.87% | Solid R |
| Georgia | 7662 / 738 | 91.21% | 8.79% | Likely D |
| Idaho | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Illinois | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Iowa | 244 / 8156 | 2.9% | 97.1% | Solid R |
| Kansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Kentucky | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Louisiana | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Maine | 7610 / 790 | 90.6% | 9.4% | Likely D |
| Massachusetts | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Michigan | 1483 / 6917 | 17.65% | 82.35% | Likely R |
| Minnesota | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Mississippi | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Montana | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
| Nebraska | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| New Hampshire | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| New Jersey | 8391 / 9 | 99.89% | 0.11% | Solid D |
| New Mexico | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| North Carolina | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Ohio | 1716/ 6684 | 20.43% | 79.57% | Likely R |
| Oklahoma | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Rhode Island | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| South Carolina | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| South Dakota | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Texas | 3964 / 4436 | 47.19% | 52.81% | Lean R |
| Virginia | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| West Virginia | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Wyoming | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
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