Democrats have a 20.67% chance of taking the Senate, while Republicans have a 79.33% chance of retaining.
The Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 48 | Rep – 52
Key Races: Alaska – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – Nebraska – New Hampshire – North Carolina – Ohio – Texas
Senate Trajectories (Since January 1st):
Rating Changes (From May to June): Nebraska (Solid R -> Likely R), Texas (Likely R -> Lean R)
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
| Alabama | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Alaska | 8198 / 202 | 97.59% | 2.41% | Likely D |
| Arkansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Colorado | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Delaware | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Florida | 2340 / 6060 | 27.86% | 72.14% | Likely R |
| Georgia | 7860 / 540 | 93.57% | 6.43% | Likely D |
| Idaho | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Illinois | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Iowa | 332 / 8068 | 3.95% | 96.05% | Solid R |
| Kansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Kentucky | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Louisiana | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Maine | 7706 / 694 | 91.74% | 8.26% | Likely D |
| Massachusetts | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Michigan | 2186 / 6214 | 26.02% | 73.98% | Likely R |
| Minnesota | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Mississippi | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Montana | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
| Nebraska | 3205 / 5195 | 38.15% | 61.85% | Lean R |
| New Hampshire | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| New Jersey | 8383 / 17 | 99.79% | 0.21% | Solid D |
| New Mexico | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| North Carolina | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Ohio | 1267 / 7133 | 15.08% | 84.92% | Likely R |
| Oklahoma | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Rhode Island | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| South Carolina | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| South Dakota | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Texas | 1267 / 7133 | 17.21% | 82.79% | Lean R |
| Virginia | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| West Virginia | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Wyoming | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
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