Democrats and Republicans each have 18 gubernatorial seats up for election this year.
Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 25 Rep – 25
View blog post here >
Key Races: Arizona – Georgia – Iowa – Maine – Michigan – Nevada – Ohio – Pennsylvania – Vermont – Wisconsin
Governor Trajectories (Since January 1st):
Rating Changes (From May to June): Iowa (Solid R -> Lean D) , Michigan (Likely D -> Solid D), Nevada (Tossup -> Tilt D)
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Alabama | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Alaska | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Arizona | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Arkansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| California | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Colorado | 8400/ 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Connecticut | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Florida | 44 / 9356 | 0.52% | 99.48% | Solid R |
| Georgia | 8013/ 387 | 95.39% | 4.61% | Likely D |
| Hawaii | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Idaho | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Illinois | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Iowa | 7941 / 459 | 94.54% | 5.46% | Lean D |
| Kansas | 0 / 8400 | 0.% | 100% | Solid R |
| Massachusetts | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maryland | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maine | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Michigan | 8393 / 7 | 99.92% | 0.08% | Solid D |
| Minnesota | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Nebraska | 43 / 8357 | 0.51% | 99.49% | Solid R |
| New Hampshire | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| New Mexico | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| New York | 8395 / 5 | 99.94% | 0.06% | Solid D |
| Nevada | 4937 / 3463 | 58.77% | 41.23% | Tilt D |
| Ohio | 3223 / 5177 | 38.37% | 61.63% | Lean R |
| Oklahoma | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Pennsylvania | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Rhode Island | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| South Carolina | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| South Dakota | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Texas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Vermont | 676 / 7724 | 8.05% | 91.95% | Likely R |
| Wisconsin | 6676 / 1724 | 79.48% | 20.52% | Likely D |
| Wyoming | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
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