With three months of the election season in the books, and three massive primaries out of the way in Illinois, North Carolina, and Texas (for the most part), the election cycle is truly underway now. The April simulations signal a true shift from the previous months: not just in method or calibration, but in the momentum of a particular party over the course of this month.

There have been massive geopolitical and domestic shifts in the past month that should not be ignored, and potentially gives ideas to why there were shifts towards the left. The United States, in coordination with Israel, have carried out strikes on Iran since February 28th, to middling results for a military powerhouse. These developments have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, that according to AP News sent gas prices past a national average of $4 overnight (the highest since 2022). There is also a partial U.S. government shutdown that is directly affecting the work of ICE and DHS, among other agencies. Trump’s popularity is remarkably low at the current moment, with the Economist’s measure of the President’s net approval rating hovering around -20.

Rating Changes: Alaska (From Lean D -> Likely D), Maine (Lean D -> Likely D), New Hampshire (Likely D -> Solid D), North Carolina (Likely D -> Solid D), Texas (Likely R -> Lean R)

Thirty-five seats are on the ballot, including all of Class II and two special elections in Florida and Ohio. Republicans are defending 22 of those seats, Democrats 13, with most states having solid ideological leanings. As outlined in previous reports, the 2026 Senate map is structurally favorable to Republicans, and Democrats would need a near-perfect night and at least four pickups to reclaim the majority. Hitting 50 seats would not be enough for Democrats, since the vice presidency currently rests with the GOP, leaving them in the minority unless they reach 51 outright.

As of last month’s simulations, Democrats only had a 4.6% of retaining the Senate. As of this month, Republicans are still favored at 90.4 percent chance of retaining the Senate, while Democrats now sit at 9.67 percent. Dems are gaining considerably compared to where they started in January. Remember, Republicans were favored by a 99.8-0.2 split in the January Report, and a 98.11-1.89 split in the February Report. In terms of the modal outcome of the Senate simulation, Democrats are still three behind: Republicans 52, Democrats 48. That said, this month has offered new pathways for Democrats to potentially assemble a governing majority.

Alaska is once again the most interesting race to follow in the Senate model, which over the course of the past few months has shifted from a Republican stronghold into a race in favor of Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola. Peltola is polling incredibly well against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, who is polling among the most unpopular Senators in the entire country. In analysis, we must also remember that the state has adopted ranked-choice voting, and that can realistically shift the race in any given direction. In Maine, the Democratic Primary seems to be keenly in the favor of oysterman and former U.S. marine Graham Platner over Maine Governor Janet Mills. Platner is performing very well in general election polling against Susan Collins, who is also among the most unpopular Senators in the entire country.

Again, states like Texas still showcase Republican advantages, but are finding opponent gains again. In the Lone Star State, the Democratic primary result this past month went in favor of Talarico, setting up Democrats with goals of appealing Latino and White voters. That said, given performances in the primary, he might continue to struggle with black turnout (especially those within the big metropolitan areas). Whether his message is able to bring out droves of inner-city voters is yet to be seen. States like New Hampshire and North Carolina have continued to solidify likely results with more polling data, as there is incredibly little chance the Granite State will actually go in favor of Republicans.

As stated in previous reports, states like Michigan are seemingly more than in play for Republicans, and the same can be said for Democrats in Maine. But now, Alaska and Texas should also be monitored as potential pickups for Democrats. With Democrats requiring a clean sweep of competitive states and at least one or two genuine upsets beyond Maine to reach their needed threshold, the party needs a really good night and a good enough message to draw out low-propensity voters. As of April, it again continues to look as though the Senate will remain in Republican hands for the rest of the second Trump administration.

Rating Changes: Arizona (Lean D -> Solid D), Maine (Likely D -> Solid D), Nevada (Lean R -> Likely R), Ohio (Likely R -> Tossup), Pennsylvania (Lean D -> Solid D)

The 2026 gubernatorial map has made almost as many changes in terms of rating in the past month. With methodological updates, April’s governor simulations are incredibly insightful regarding the momentum of each respective party. As of the April simulations, Democrats are expected to finish with 23 governor seats, while Republicans are expected to finish with 27 (when utilizing modal outcomes of the simulation). This was a gain of one seat from last month’s Report, with that seat being Ohio.

Ohio is probably the most interesting and noticeable rating change in the report. In the matter of a month, the race has shifted from Republican hands to a genuine tossup with Democrats winning a majority of simulations. The average margin favors Democrats by +1.89. This shift is a striking reversal from where the race stood only weeks ago. Physician Amy Acton has recently polled ahead of high-profile challenger, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, in various key polls. This overperformance in the polls has shifted the results in the state considerably this month as a result.

Arizona tells a very different story, one of increasing Democratic stability rather than volatility. With better polling access and stronger-than-expected numbers coming in for incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs, her re-election position has solidified considerably. In March, Hobbs carried 5,210 of 8,400 simulations. In April, she wins all 8,400, and not by thin margins. Her average winning margin has climbed to +12.49, a figure that reflects both her incumbency advantage and the continued structural challenges Republicans face in Arizona’s rapidly shifting electorate. The Lean D rating was no longer defensible given the data; Solid D is the more accurate characterization.

Several other races that appeared marginally interesting earlier in the cycle are now settling into clearer patterns. Michigan continues to consolidate as a Democratic hold, with Democrats winning over 99 percent of simulations, a level of confidence that effectively removes it from the competitive conversation for now. Minnesota and Wisconsin remain safely in the Democratic column as well, though both show slightly more competitive underlying numbers than prior reports suggested. Neither race appears genuinely at risk, but neither should be written off entirely from future monitoring.

Similar to the Senate simulation, there are some course corrections that were rather expected once more polling data came in. Nevada and Pennsylvania are the main ones, with actual changes in rating as a result of their shifts. In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro is maintaining such a firm Democratic hold in the gubernatorial model that it could barely be analyzed as a swing race. Rather than a lack of adequate polling, Republicans are falling short in terms of putting up a good candidate against Shapiro. This race likely sets him up for a Presidential run in 2028.

On the Republican side, the map remains largely locked in the Sun Belt and Deep South. Florida and Texas are not in play at the statewide level, but Florida is generating significant intraparty drama through a contentious Republican primary between U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and James Fishback, a 31-year-old far-right investor. The contention stems not from polling proximity (Donalds leads Fishback by a wide margin) but from the race becoming a proxy fight over the direction of the Florida GOP in a post-DeSantis environment. Fishback’s openly racist rhetoric and attacks on Donalds have drawn significant national attention across the political spectrum, and the normalization of that kind of fascist messaging is a development worth watching well beyond Florida’s borders.