Democrats and Republicans each have 18 gubernatorial seats up for election this year.
Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 24 Rep – 26
Key Races: Arizona – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – Nevada – Pennsylvania – Vermont – Wisconsin
Governor Trajectories (Since January 1st):
Rating Changes (From April to May): Arizona (Lean D -> Solid D) , Georgia (Likely R -> Likely D), Nevada (Lean R -> Likely R), Ohio (Likely R -> Tossup), Pennsylvania (Lean D -> Solid D)
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Alabama | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Alaska | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Arizona | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Arkansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| California | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Colorado | 8400/ 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Connecticut | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Florida | 9 / 8391 | 0.11% | 99.89% | Solid R |
| Georgia | 8026 / 374 | 95.55% | 4.45% | Likely D |
| Hawaii | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Idaho | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Illinois | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Iowa | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Kansas | 2 / 8398 | 0.02% | 99.98% | Solid R |
| Massachusetts | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maryland | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maine | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Michigan | 6557 / 1843 | 78.06% | 21.94% | Lean D |
| Minnesota | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Nebraska | 29 / 8371 | 0.35% | 99.65% | Solid R |
| New Hampshire | 2 / 8398 | 0.02% | 99.98% | Solid R |
| New Mexico | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| New York | 8393 / 7 | 99.92% | 0.08% | Solid D |
| Nevada | 4742 / 3658 | 56.45% | 43.55% | Tossup |
| Ohio | 3173 / 5227 | 37.8% | 62.2% | Lean R |
| Oklahoma | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8400/ 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Pennsylvania | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Rhode Island | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| South Carolina | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| South Dakota | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Texas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Vermont | 709 / 7691 | 8.44% | 91.56% | Likely R |
| Wisconsin | 6884 / 1516 | 81.95% | 18.05% | Likely D |
| Wyoming | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
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