Both Democrats and Republicans have 18 gubernatorial seats each up for election this year.
Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 23 Rep – 27
View blog post here >
Key Races: Arizona – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – Nevada – Pennsylvania – Vermont – Wisconsin
Governor Trajectories (Since January 1st):
Rating Changes: Arizona (Lean D -> Solid D), Maine (Likely D -> Solid D), Nevada (Lean R -> Likely R), Ohio (Likely R -> Tossup), Pennsylvania (Lean D -> Solid D)
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Alabama | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Alaska | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Arizona | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Arkansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| California | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Colorado | 8400/ 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Connecticut | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Florida | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Georgia | 423 / 7977 | 5.04% | 95.96% | Likely R |
| Hawaii | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Idaho | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Illinois | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Iowa | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Kansas | 4 / 8396 | 0.05% | 99.95% | Solid R |
| Massachusetts | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maryland | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maine | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Michigan | 6573 / 1827 | 78.25% | 21.75% | Likely D |
| Minnesota | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Nebraska | 26 / 8374 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Solid R |
| New Hampshire | 128 / 8272 | 1.52% | 98.48% | Likely R |
| New Mexico | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| New York | 8390 / 10 | 99.88% | 0.12% | Solid D |
| Nevada | 1944 / 6456 | 23.14% | 76.86% | Likely R |
| Ohio | 4444 / 3956 | 52.9% | 47.1% | Tossup |
| Oklahoma | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8400/ 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Pennsylvania | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Rhode Island | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| South Carolina | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| South Dakota | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Texas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Vermont | 687 / 7713 | 8.18% | 91.82% | Likely R |
| Wisconsin | 8396 / 4 | 99.95% | 0.05% | Likely D |
| Wyoming | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
Join Gambit Forecaster’s Newsletter Here!