May Report: 2026 U.S. Senate Races

Democrats have a 10.43% chance of taking the Senate, while Republicans have a 89.57% chance of retaining.

The Most Common Simulation Outcome:

Dem – 48 | Rep – 52

View blog post here >

Key Races: Alaska – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – New Hampshire – North Carolina – Ohio – Texas

Senate Trajectories (Since January 1st):

Rating Changes (From April to May): Texas (Lean R -> Likely R)

StateDem Wins / Rep WinsDem Win ProbabilityRep Win ProbabilityGambit Rating
Alabama0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Alaska8220 / 18097.86%2.14%Likely D
Arkansas0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Colorado8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
Delaware8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
Florida2145 / 625525.54%74.46%Solid R
Georgia7858 / 54293.55%6.45%Likely D
Idaho0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Illinois8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
Iowa277 / 81233.3%96.7%Solid R
Kansas0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Kentucky0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Louisiana0 /84000%100%Solid R
Maine7784 / 61692.67%7.33%Likely D
Massachusetts8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
Michigan1567 / 683318.65%81.35%Likely R
Minnesota8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
Mississippi0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Montana0 / 84000%100%Solid R
StateDem Wins / Rep WinsDem Win ProbabilityRep Win ProbabilityGambit Rating
Nebraska0 / 84000%100%Solid R
New Hampshire8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
New Jersey8385 / 1599.82%0.18%Solid D
New Mexico8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
North Carolina8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
Ohio1265 / 713515.06%84.94%Likely R
Oklahoma0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Oregon8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
Rhode Island8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
South Carolina0 / 84000%100%Solid R
South Dakota0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Tennessee0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Texas1252 / 714814.9%85.1%Likely R
Virginia8400 / 0100%0%Solid D
West Virginia0 / 84000%100%Solid R
Wyoming0 / 84000%100%Solid R
StateDem Wins / Rep WinsDem Win ProbabilityRep Win ProbabilityGambit Rating

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