March Report: 2026 U.S. Senate Races
Democrats have a 4.6% chance of taking the Senate, while Republicans have a 95.4% chance of retaining.
The Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 48 | Rep – 52
View blog post here >
Key Races: Alaska – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – New Hampshire – North Carolina – Ohio – Texas
Senate Trajectories (Since January 1st):
Rating Changes: Alaska (From Likely R -> Lean D), North Carolina (Solid D -> Likely D)
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
| Alabama | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Alaska | 5986 / 2414 | 71.26% | 28.74% | Lean D |
| Arkansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Colorado | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Delaware | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Florida | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Georgia | 7663 / 737 | 91.23% | 8.77% | Likely D |
| Idaho | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Illinois | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Iowa | 197 / 8203 | 2.35% | 97.65% | Solid R |
| Kansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Kentucky | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Louisiana | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Maine | 4840 / 3560 | 57.62% | 42.38% | Lean D |
| Massachusetts | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Michigan | 2428 / 5972 | 28.90% | 71.10% | Likely R |
| Minnesota | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Mississippi | 0 / 8400 | 0 | 100% | Solid R |
| Montana | 421 / 7979 | 4.94% | 95.06% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
| Nebraska | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| New Hampshire | 8242 / 158 | 99.96% | 0.04% | Likely D |
| New Jersey | 8351 / 49 | 99.42% | 0.58% | Solid D |
| New Mexico | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| North Carolina | 8281 / 119 | 98.58% | 1.42% | Likely D |
| Ohio | 2957 / 5443 | 35.20% | 79.35% | Likely R |
| Oklahoma | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Rhode Island | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| South Carolina | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| South Dakota | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Texas | 1448 / 6952 | 17.24% | 82.76% | Likely R |
| Virginia | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| West Virginia | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Wyoming | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
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