3/6 – NBA Seeding Predictions: Final Records, Playoff Seeding, and Projected Lottery Results
By Sam Massey
We are entering the home stretch of the NBA season. And, of course, Gambit Forecaster is back to post updated prediction with new data and additional constraints. Take a look at the tables and analysis below! I have added a new column to view their shift in seeding since the last simulation.
In the Western Conference, San Antonio takes the lead in the West while Detroit holds stable in the Eastern Conference. Filling out the West contenders, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves continue to form a dominant and stable top three, but Denver’s incredible resurgence puts them into a very similar category. The East has a multitude of teams who are qualified to get to the finals, given the current makeup of the conference at least. Detroit is the best team, but Cleveland, Knicks, and Celtics are not too far behind. I would not be surprised if they are competitive. Some outliers I noticed in this model: PHI and LAC, which I’ll have to work on adjustments for in the next NBA report. Here are the predicted ending standings:
Predicted End Standings
East – West
Seeding – Team – Projected Record – Seed Movement
| 1st seed | DET | 58-24 | – |
| 2nd seed | BOS | 53-29 | +2 |
| 3rd seed | CLE | 53-29 | -1 |
| 4th seed | NYK | 50-32 | -1 |
| 5th seed | MIA | 49-33 | – |
| 6th seed | CHA | 45-37 | +4 |
| 7th seed | ATL | 45-37 | +3 |
| 8th seed | ORL | 44-38 | – |
| 9th seed | TOR | 42-40 | -2 |
| 10th seed | PHI | 36-46 | -4 |
| 11th seed | CHI | 35-47 | +1 |
| 12th seed | MIL | 30-52 | -1 |
| 13th seed | WAS | 22-60 | – |
| 14th seed | IND | 20-62 | – |
| 15th seed | BKN | 18-64 | – |
| 1st seed | SAS | 60-22 | +1 |
| 2nd seed | OKC | 58-24 | -1 |
| 3rd seed | MIN | 56-26 | – |
| 4th seed | DEN | 54-28 | – |
| 5th seed | LAL | 51-31 | – |
| 6th seed | LAC | 48-34 | +4 |
| 7th seed | HOU | 45-37 | -1 |
| 8th seed | PHX | 41-41 | – |
| 9th seed | MEM | 38-44 | +2 |
| 10th seed | POR | 37-45 | -3 |
| 11th seed | GSW | 37-45 | -2 |
| 12th seed | NOP | 33-49 | – |
| 13th seed | UTA | 32-50 | +1 |
| 14th seed | DAL | 22-60 | -1 |
| 15th seed | SAC | 20-62 | – |
Predicted 2026 NBA Draft Lottery
Projected Pick – Team – Projected Pick Movement – Conference
| 1st Pick | BKN | – | EAST |
| 2nd Pick | DAL | +6 | WEST |
| 3rd Pick | IND | -1 | EAST |
| 4th Pick | SAC | -1 | WEST |
| 5th Pick | WAS | – | EAST |
| 6th Pick | MIL | +5 | EAST |
| 7th Pick | UTA | -3 | WEST |
| 8th Pick | NOP | – | WEST |
| 9th Pick | CHI | -3 | EAST |
| 10th Pick | PHI | Entered Lottery | EAST |
| 11th Pick | GSW | +3 | WEST |
| 12th Pick | MEM | -3 | WEST |
| 13th Pick | POR | Entered Lottery | WEST |
| 14th pick | TOR | Entered Lottery | EAST |
View our last prediction – 2/20