By Sam Massey
Out of all the All-Star breaks, the 2025-2026 season’s All-Star Break was definitely one of them! With the second half of the season in deep swing, Gambit Forecaster is back to post updated prediction with new data and additional constraints. Take a look at the tables and analysis below! I have added a new column to view their shift in seeding since the last simulation.
In the Western Conference, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Minnesota form a dominant and stable top three, all holding their previous seeds and projecting elite win totals. The biggest drop is Houston, which fell two spots and improved significantly from its previous simulation record. Denver experienced the largest growth, going up three seeds despite a strong projected win total, which highlights how much stronger the top of the West has become. The bottom tier in the West remains mostly unchanged, with Utah and Sacramento anchored at the bottom and showing minimal improvement, reinforcing a clear separation between contenders and rebuilding teams.
Predicted End Standings
East – West
Seeding – Team – Projected Record – Seed Movement
| 1st seed | DET | 60-22 | – |
| 2nd seed | CLE | 55-27 | – |
| 3rd seed | NYK | 53-29 | +1 |
| 4th seed | BOS | 50-32 | -1 |
| 5th seed | MIA | 49-33 | +1 |
| 6th seed | PHI | 46-36 | -1 |
| 7th seed | TOR | 45-37 | +2 |
| 8th seed | ORL | 44-38 | – |
| 9th seed | CHA | 41-41 | +1 |
| 10th seed | ATL | 39-43 | -3 |
| 11th seed | MIL | 35-47 | – |
| 12th seed | CHI | 30-52 | – |
| 13th seed | WAS | 24-58 | +1 |
| 14th seed | IND | 21-61 | +1 |
| 15th seed | BKN | 17-65 | -2 |
| 1st seed | OKC | 61-21 | – |
| 2nd seed | SAS | 59-23 | – |
| 3rd seed | MIN | 56-26 | – |
| 4th seed | DEN | 55-27 | +3 |
| 5th seed | LAL | 51-31 | – |
| 6th seed | HOU | 46-36 | -2 |
| 7th seed | POR | 45-37 | -1 |
| 8th seed | PHX | 42-40 | – |
| 9th seed | GSW | 41-41 | – |
| 10th seed | LAC | 36-46 | +1 |
| 11th seed | MEM | 34-48 | -1 |
| 12th seed | NOP | 32-50 | +1 |
| 13th seed | DAL | 28-54 | -1 |
| 14th seed | UTA | 19-63 | +1 |
| 15th seed | SAC | 18-64 | -1 |
The Eastern Conference continues to show a clear top tier led by Detroit and Cleveland, who both held their seeding positions and matched or slightly underperformed their previous simulation win totals. Detroit remains the class of the conference with a projected 60 wins, reinforcing its stability as the one seed. Their postseason success, however, depends entirely on shooting and whether Jalen Duren can step up as a real secondary scorer who can create his own shot. Players like Duncan Robinson and Kevin Huerter need to hit their shots as well.
Boston and Philadelphia both moved down one spot, reflecting weaker projected performance compared to their last simulation. Although I feel that Boston should be considered a contender, especially if Jayson Tatum returns before the end of the season, my Philadelphia 76ers are sadly not within that same realm. Atlanta stands out the most in the East by jumping three seeds despite a lower projected win total than their previous simulation, which is the model’s response to talent shifts and efficiency slumps.
The lower half of the East shows modest shifts but no dramatic improvements in team strength. Brooklyn moved up two spots despite only 17 projected wins, which says more about the weakness of the teams around them than their own progress. Charlotte and Toronto both slipped despite hovering around .500, reinforcing how competitive the play in range is. Milwaukee and Chicago remained unchanged, which signals stagnation rather than growth, while Washington and Indiana continue to project as clear bottom tier teams with little sign of upward movement.
In the Western Conference, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Minnesota form a dominant and stable top three, all holding their previous seeds and continuing to project elite win totals. OKC is beginning to get back into the swing of things after a midseason rough patch. Nevertheless, Shai Gilgeous Alexander is a top MVP candidate for good reason. The San Antonio Spurs, however, might be their Achilles heel in the postseason. We need to keep monitoring Victor Wembanyama’s minutes before we can fully analyze whether the Spurs could win a series against OKC this year. If he is playing fewer than 30 minutes in close playoff games, then we need to have a larger conversation.
The Timberwolves are contenders, but not on the same level as OKC or San Antonio. While they have improved in terms of shot output and guard play with the acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu from the Bulls, they are still in desperate need of a player who can directly help them close out games. Their lack of depth and, by extension, lack of trade capital to move around puts them in a very peculiar position. They are another team to keep an eye on in the West.
The largest growth belongs to Denver, which jumped three spots and improved significantly from its previous simulation record. The team’s play without Jokic, combined with his eventual return to regular season action, puts them in a strong position overall. Houston experienced the sharpest drop, falling two seeds despite a strong projected win total, which highlights how much stronger the top of the West has become. While part of the numerical decline comes from failure to close out games, the Kevin Durant teammate scandal also plays a role in reducing the team’s chemistry and negatively impacts the predicted win loss record. The bottom tier in the West remains mostly unchanged, with Utah and Sacramento anchored at the bottom and showing minimal improvement, reinforcing a clear separation between contenders and rebuilding teams.
Predicted 2026 NBA Draft Lottery
Projected Pick – Team – Projected Pick Movement – Conference
| 1st Pick | BKN | – | EAST |
| 2nd Pick | IND | – | EAST |
| 3rd Pick | SAC | +3 | WEST |
| 4th Pick | UTA | +1 | WEST |
| 5th Pick | WAS | -1 | EAST |
| 6th Pick | CHI | +2 | EAST |
| 7th Pick | DAL | – | WEST |
| 8th Pick | NOP | +2 | WEST |
| 9th Pick | MEM | +2 | WEST |
| 10th Pick | LAC | -5 | WEST |
| 11th Pick | MIL | -2 | EAST |
| 12th Pick | ATL | Entered Lottery | EAST |
| 13th Pick | CHA | – | EAST |
| 14th pick | GSW | Entered Lottery | WEST |
View our last prediction – 2/7