March Report: 2026 U.S. Gubernatorial Races
Both Democrats and Republicans have 18 gubernatorial seats each up for election this year
Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 26 Rep – 28
Key Races: Arizona – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – Nevada – Pennsylvania – Vermont – Wisconsin
Governor Trajectories (Since January 1st):
New ratings: Kansas (Likely R -> Solid R), Michigan (Solid D -> Likely D), Ohio (Solid R -> Likely R), Vermont (Lean R -> Likely R)
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Alabama | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Alaska | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Arizona | 5210 / 3190 | 62.73% | 37.26% | Lean D |
| Arkansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| California | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Colorado | 8400/ 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Connecticut | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Florida | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Georgia | 902 / 7498 | 11.4% | 88.6% | Likely R |
| Hawaii | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Idaho | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Illinois | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Iowa | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Kansas | 38 / 8362 | 29.88% | 70.12% | Solid R |
| Massachusetts | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maryland | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maine | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Likely D |
| Michigan | 7698 / 771 | 99.27% | 0.73% | Likely D |
| Minnesota | 7913/ 487 | 94.2% | 5.8% | Solid D |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Nebraska | 185 / 8215 | 2.21% | 97.79% | Solid R |
| New Hampshire | 130 / 8270 | 0.33% | 99.67% | Likely R |
| New Mexico | 8399 / 1 | 100% | 0% | Likely D |
| New York | 8366 / 34 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Nevada | 2814 / 5586 | 33.5% | 66.5% | Lean R |
| Ohio | 1098 / 7302 | 13.07% | 86.93% | Likely R |
| Oklahoma | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8400/ 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Pennsylvania | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Lean D |
| Rhode Island | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| South Carolina | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| South Dakota | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Texas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Vermont | 1352 / 7048 | 16.1% | 83.9% | Likely R |
| Wisconsin | 8210 / 190 | 97.74% | 2.26% | Likely D |
| Wyoming | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
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