Democrats and Republicans each have 18 gubernatorial seats up for election this year. 36 total.
Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 26 Rep – 24
Key Races: Arizona – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – Nevada – Pennsylvania – Vermont – Wisconsin
DATASET:
2026 Governor Forecast
As of Nov 3, 2026 · 10,000 simulations per state
| State | Dem Wins | Rep Wins | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK | 10,000 | 0 | D+7.84 |
| AL | 16 | 9,984 | R+7.39 |
| AR | 840 | 9,160 | R+4.49 |
| AZ | 10,000 | 0 | D+8.20 |
| CA | 10,000 | 0 | D+21.15 |
| CO | 9,850 | 150 | D+12.62 |
| CT | 10,000 | 0 | D+16.20 |
| FL | 101 | 9,899 | R+3.51 |
| GA | 7,082 | 2,918 | D+1.01 |
| HI | 10,000 | 0 | D+26.43 |
| IA | 10,000 | 0 | D+7.25 |
| ID | 34 | 9,966 | R+15.40 |
| IL | 10,000 | 0 | D+18.28 |
| KS | 984 | 9,016 | R+2.25 |
| MA | 10,000 | 0 | D+22.64 |
| MD | 10,000 | 0 | D+25.84 |
| ME | 10,000 | 0 | D+11.31 |
| MI | 10,000 | 0 | D+7.67 |
| MN | 10,000 | 0 | D+10.26 |
| NE | 356 | 9,644 | R+3.47 |
| NH | 0 | 10,000 | R+7.85 |
| NM | 9,864 | 136 | D+5.93 |
| NV | 1,173 | 8,827 | R+2.52 |
| NY | 10,000 | 0 | D+12.44 |
| OH | 9,822 | 178 | D+3.59 |
| OK | 3,281 | 6,719 | R+3.01 |
| OR | 7,490 | 2,510 | D+2.65 |
| PA | 10,000 | 0 | D+23.54 |
| RI | 10,000 | 0 | D+11.56 |
| SC | 11 | 9,989 | R+7.13 |
| SD | 0 | 10,000 | R+15.99 |
| TN | 0 | 10,000 | R+18.88 |
| TX | 644 | 9,356 | R+2.53 |
| VT | 310 | 9,690 | R+3.67 |
| WI | 9,626 | 374 | D+3.36 |
| WY | 0 | 10,000 | R+58.29 |
Wins = simulated wins out of 10,000.
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