January Report: 2026 U.S. Gubernatorial Races
Democrats have 18 gubernatorial seats up for election this year, while Republicans also have 18.
Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 22 (-2) Rep – 28 (+2)
Key Races: Arizona – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – Nevada – Pennsylvania – Wisconsin
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Alabama | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Alaska | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Arizona | 6108 / 2292 | 72.71% | 27.29% | Lean D |
| Arkansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| California | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Colorado | 8400/ 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Connecticut | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Florida | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Georgia | 668 / 7732 | 7.95% | 92.05% | Lean R |
| Hawaii | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Idaho | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Illinois | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Iowa | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Kansas | 2252 / 6148 | 26.81% | 73.19% | Likely R |
| Massachusetts | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maryland | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Maine | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Likely D |
| Michigan | 7658 / 742 | 91.17% | 8.83% | Likely D |
| Minnesota | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |
| Nebraska | 170 / 8230 | 2.02% | 97.98% | Safe R |
| New Hampshire | 1008 / 7392 | 12% | 88% | Likely R |
| New Mexico | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Likely D |
| New York | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Nevada | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Likely R |
| Ohio | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Likely R |
| Oklahoma | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8400/ 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Pennsylvania | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Lean D |
| Rhode Island | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| South Carolina | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| South Dakota | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Texas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Vermont | 1273 / 7127 | 15.15% | 84.85% | Lean R |
| Wisconsin | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Likely D |
| Wyoming | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Safe R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Rating |