January Report: 2026 U.S. Senate Races
Democrats have a 0.02% chance of taking the Senate, while Republicans have a 99.8% chance of retaining.
The Most Common Simulation Outcome:
Dem – 47 | Rep – 53
Key Races: Florida – Georgia – Maine – Michigan –New Hampshire – North Carolina – Ohio – Texas
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
| Alabama | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Alaska | 837 / 7563 | 9.96% | 90.04% | Likely R |
| Arkansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Colorado | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Delaware | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Florida | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Georgia | 5312 / 3088 | 63.24% | 36.76% | Tilt D |
| Idaho | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Illinois | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Iowa | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Kansas | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Kentucky | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Louisiana | 0 /8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Maine | 4968 / 3432 | 59.14% | 40.86% | Lean D |
| Massachusetts | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Michigan | 2197 / 6203 | 26.15% | 73.85% | Lean R |
| Minnesota | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Mississippi | 0 / 8400 | 0 | 100% | Solid R |
| Montana | 467 / 7933 | 5.56% | 94.44% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |
| Nebraska | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| New Hampshire | 8242 / 158 | 98.12% | 1.88% | Likely D |
| New Jersey | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| New York | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| North Carolina | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Ohio | 405 / 7995 | 4.82% | 95.18% | Likely R |
| Oklahoma | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| Rhode Island | 8400 / 0 | 100% | 0% | Solid D |
| South Carolina | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| South Dakota | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Texas | 248 / 8152 | 2.95% | 97.05% | Likely R |
| West Virginia | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| Wyoming | 0 / 8400 | 0% | 100% | Solid R |
| State | Dem Wins / Rep Wins | Dem Win Probability | Rep Win Probability | Gambit Rating |