February Report: 2026 U.S. Gubernatorial Races

February Report: 2026 U.S. Gubernatorial Races

Democrats have 18 gubernatorial seats up for election this year, while Republicans also have 18.

Most Common Simulation Outcome:

Dem – 22 (-2) Rep – 28 (+2)

View blog post here >

Key Races: Arizona – Georgia – Maine – Michigan – Nevada – Pennsylvania – Wisconsin

*State*	*Dem Wins / Rep Wins*	*Dem Win Probability*	*Rep Win Probability*	*Rating*
Alabama	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Alaska	0 /8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Arizona	5274/ 3126	62.79%	37.21%	Lean D
Arkansas	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
California	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Colorado	8400/ 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Connecticut	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Florida	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Georgia	958 / 7442	11.4%	88.6%	Likely R
Hawaii	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Idaho	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Illinois	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Iowa	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Kansas	2510 / 5890	29.88%	70.12%	Likely R
Massachusetts	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Maryland	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Maine	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Likely D
Michigan	8339 / 61	99.27%	0.73%	Solid D
Minnesota	7913/ 487	94.2%	5.8%	Solid D
*State*	*Dem Wins / Rep Wins*	*Dem Win Probability*	*Rep Win Probability*	*Rating*
Nebraska	186 / 8214	2.21%	97.79%	Solid R
New Hampshire	28 / 8372	0.33%	99.67%	Likely R
New Mexico	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Likely D
New York	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Nevada	2095 / 6305	24.94%	70.06%	Lean R
Ohio	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Oklahoma	0 /8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Oregon	8400/ 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Pennsylvania	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Lean D
Rhode Island	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
South Carolina	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
South Dakota	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Tennessee	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Texas	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Vermont	1299 / 7101	15.46%	84.54%	Lean R
Wisconsin	8021 / 379	95.49%	4.51%	Likely D
Wyoming	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
*State*	*Dem Wins / Rep Wins*	*Dem Win Probability*	*Rep Win Probability*	*Rating*