February Report: 2026 U.S. Senate Races

Democrats have a 1.89% chance of taking the Senate, while Republicans have a 98.11% chance of retaining.

The Most Common Simulation Outcome:

Dem – 47 | Rep – 53

View blog post here >

Key Races: Florida – Georgia – Maine – Michigan –New Hampshire – North Carolina – Ohio – Texas

State	Dem Wins / Rep Wins	Dem Win Probability	Rep Win Probability	Gambit Rating
Alabama	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Alaska	2104 / 6296	25.05%	74.95%	Likely R
Arkansas	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Colorado	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Delaware	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Florida	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Georgia	6934 / 1466	82.55%	17.45%	Likely D
Idaho	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Illinois	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Iowa	194 / 8206	2.31%	97.69%	Solid R
Kansas	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Kentucky	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Louisiana	0 /8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Maine	4748 / 3652	56.52%	43.48%	Tilt D
Massachusetts	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Michigan	1850 / 6650	22.02%	77.98%	Likely R
Minnesota	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Mississippi	0 / 8400	0	100%	Solid R
Montana	415 / 7985	4.94%	95.06%	Solid R
State	Dem Wins / Rep Wins	Dem Win Probability	Rep Win Probability	Gambit Rating
Nebraska	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
New Hampshire	8242 / 158	99.96%	0.04%	Likely D
New Jersey	8397 / 3	99.13%	0.87%	Solid D
New York	8327 / 73	100%	0%	Solid D
North Carolina	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Ohio	1735 / 6665	20.65%	79.35%	Likely R
Oklahoma	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Oregon	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
Rhode Island	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
South Carolina	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
South Dakota	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Tennessee	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Texas	1200 / 7200	14.29%	85.71%	Likely R
Virginia	8400 / 0	100%	0%	Solid D
West Virginia	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
Wyoming	0 / 8400	0%	100%	Solid R
State	Dem Wins / Rep Wins	Dem Win Probability	Rep Win Probability	Gambit Rating